If you are interested in real estate, there is a new book out that you need to be aware of…Called Contagion.
Here is a review of the book…..
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Let’s say you own a $1 million home in Santa Barbara, California.
The house seemed like a steal when you bought it with that adjustable-rate mortgage in 2005. You still love the white beaches and those yachts bobbing up and down in the harbor.
Then you awaken early one morning, troubled that your monthly payments will soon double. You go out to pick up your newspaper and see for-sale signs on five houses on the street. One identical to yours just sold for $500,000.
Are you going to pay the bank $1 million plus interest for your place? John R. Talbott, a former investment banker for Goldman Sachs, poses that hypothetical question in his latest book of financial prophesy, “Contagion.”
His answer: “I don’t think so,” he says. “If I’m right, then this housing decline has only just begun.”
Talbott is an oracle with a track record: His previous books predicted the collapse of both the housing bubble and the tech-stock binge before it. A friend who runs a New York steak house introduces him as Johnny Nostradamus, he says.
What sets him apart from other doomsayers is his relentless emphasis on simple arithmetic. He walks you through the numbers to show how U.S. house prices got so out of kilter with wages, rental prices and replacement values — the cost of buying a property and building a home. (“Homes in California by 2006 were selling at three to five times what it would cost to build a similar home from scratch,” he writes.)
Five More Years
Talbott’s latest predictions are sobering. The U.S. is only halfway through the total potential decline in housing prices, he says. Home values will continue to deteriorate for four to five years, he forecasts. Adjustable-rate mortgages issued in 2004 and 2005, for example, are only now resetting for the first time, he notes.
Bankers may “try to blame the crisis on poor Americans with bad credit histories, but that is not the real cause of the housing crisis,” he says. “The greatest home-price appreciations and the homes most subject to price readjustment are in America’s wealthiest cities and its glitziest neighborhoods.”
At the end of 2008, a record 19 million U.S. homes stood empty and homeownership sank to an eight-year low as banks seized homes faster than they could sell them, the U.S. Census Bureau said this week. Almost one in six owners with mortgages owed more than their homes were worth, Zillow.com said the same day.
By the time the crash ends, Talbott predicts, homeowners will have lost as much as $10 trillion, with investors and banks worldwide losing almost $2 trillion. And just as the U.S. starts getting over a prolonged recession, the first big wave of baby boomers will retire, depriving the economy of their productivity (and high consumption), he says.
Back to 1997
So how far will the price of your home on the range fall? Citing historical data and trends, Talbott concludes that real prices should return to their average 1997 levels, adjusted for inflation. Why 1997? A 120-year historical graph shows that real home prices in the U.S. stayed relatively flat for 100 years, then began rising in 1981 and surged from 1997 to 2006.
A return to 1997 prices “would get us out of the heady, crazy days from 1997 to 2006 in which banks were lending large amounts of money under poor supervision and aggressive terms.”
If this indeed happens that means that virtually ever home seller will be ‘upside down’ in their homes.
How did we get into this mess? Talbott blames everyone from average Americans who caught “the greed bug” to hedge funds and credit-default swaps. The single biggest error, he says, was for U.S. citizens to allow their national politicians to take large campaign contributions from big business and Wall Street — a theme Kevin Phillips developed in “Bad Money.”
‘No Accident’
“This crisis was no accident,” he says. It began, in Talbot’s view, because the U.S. government was “co-opted” into deregulating the financial industry. Politicians were “paid to deregulate industry,” taking billions of dollars each year in campaign contributions.
His investment advice for this prolonged recession: Hang on to cash and invest in gold or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS. If he had to invest in stocks, he would put his money in China.
Living in smaller houses with their savings gutted, U.S. baby boomers will face yet another big challenge, Talbott says:
“The toughest job to get in the future will be the elderly person greeting you as you enter the local Walmart.
Dave Dukes
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Can you get pre-qualified or pre-approved for a Loan Modification?
Yes and No. The real answer is no, not from a loan mod company. The banks have the ultimate say, they have the control. There are those out there saying that they will guarantee you results or that they can tell you that you are already approved before they have all of your info. Obviously they are just trying to get your business and will do anything to do it. But do you really want to trust your home to someone like that?
Or the guys that act as though they are going to do your loan modification for free or next to nothing. Like they say, you usually get what you pay for. If they have an office and a staff you better believe they are making money some how. From what we have heard and seen many of them are using the old bait and switch. They get you in on a loan mod, then for some reason when you are not approved they get you to go with them for a short sell. See what happens if you tell them you already have a short sell approved through another Realtor, but that you would like to give it one last try to stay in your home through a modification.
I am sure you have heard in the news about the groups that are taking money from people just before they lose their homes and give them hopes of getting a loan modification. There are thousands of people who have done this where the loan mod companies did not even contact the lenders on their behalf. Likewise I know of someone who was working with their bank on their own loan modification and they got foreclosed on.
There is such a wide array of results that it would be misleading to tell someone the kind of results they could expect prior to having a complete loan modification package. Even then it's not certain.
I just want you to be as informed as you possibly can be BEFORE YOU PAY!
Also, before you begin thinking you need to look for a new place to live. You should set up a time to meet with a qualified negotiator or talk on the phone so we can figure out how much you can afford to pay in your existing home. Some are having success getting into loan mods where their payments are lower than if they were to move out and rent.
To get pre-qualified for a loan modification, I will collect information about your debt, income, and assets. I'll look at your property value and your loan docs and assess your best options.
I do not charge up front fees and will only take your case if I feel very confident you can get a loan modification.
To get pre-approved, you will complete a loan modification application and provide me with a variety of information verifying your employment, assets and financial status through W-2 forms, bank records and credit card statements. I'll review your loan modification worksheet, then package it together in a format that we know gets results from the bank and then you relax and let us do the negotiations with the bank.
Amount of time this process takes varies depending on your lender.
Give me a call for more information or to request an appointment for a loan modification consultation.
Or the guys that act as though they are going to do your loan modification for free or next to nothing. Like they say, you usually get what you pay for. If they have an office and a staff you better believe they are making money some how. From what we have heard and seen many of them are using the old bait and switch. They get you in on a loan mod, then for some reason when you are not approved they get you to go with them for a short sell. See what happens if you tell them you already have a short sell approved through another Realtor, but that you would like to give it one last try to stay in your home through a modification.
I am sure you have heard in the news about the groups that are taking money from people just before they lose their homes and give them hopes of getting a loan modification. There are thousands of people who have done this where the loan mod companies did not even contact the lenders on their behalf. Likewise I know of someone who was working with their bank on their own loan modification and they got foreclosed on.
There is such a wide array of results that it would be misleading to tell someone the kind of results they could expect prior to having a complete loan modification package. Even then it's not certain.
I just want you to be as informed as you possibly can be BEFORE YOU PAY!
Also, before you begin thinking you need to look for a new place to live. You should set up a time to meet with a qualified negotiator or talk on the phone so we can figure out how much you can afford to pay in your existing home. Some are having success getting into loan mods where their payments are lower than if they were to move out and rent.
To get pre-qualified for a loan modification, I will collect information about your debt, income, and assets. I'll look at your property value and your loan docs and assess your best options.
I do not charge up front fees and will only take your case if I feel very confident you can get a loan modification.
To get pre-approved, you will complete a loan modification application and provide me with a variety of information verifying your employment, assets and financial status through W-2 forms, bank records and credit card statements. I'll review your loan modification worksheet, then package it together in a format that we know gets results from the bank and then you relax and let us do the negotiations with the bank.
Amount of time this process takes varies depending on your lender.
Give me a call for more information or to request an appointment for a loan modification consultation.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Inland Empire Real Estate - How long do I have before the bank forecloses?
Greetings and Happy New Year! It might not be such a Happy New Year for everyone though. In these uncertain economic times, a job loss or a death in one's immediate family can quickly change one's financial fortunes in a hurry. The following is a timeline that outlines the legal timeframes for foreclosure. If you are in foreclosure this the minimum amount of time before you lose your house. Actual times may vary because of large workloads placed on the foreclosure departments of lenders and loan servicers.
FORECLOSURE TIMELINE FOR OWNER-OCCUPIED REAL PROPERTY LOANS (made from 2003 to 2007)
The approximate minimum time frames for the non-judicial foreclosure of owner‑occupied real property loans made from 2003 to 2007 are as set forth below. In California, most lenders elect to foreclose non-judicially by conducting trustees' sales, not by judicial foreclosure.
Pre-Foreclosure Period
A lender may initiate the foreclosure process when a borrower defaults on a loan, such as by missing a mortgage payment. However, a slight delay may not justify acceleration and foreclosure by the lender. Hence, in practice, lenders generally wait a few months after a missed payment before starting the foreclosure process.
Day 1: Lender Contacts Borrower
For owner-occupied loans from 2003 to 2007, a lender initiating the foreclosure process must generally contact the borrower by phone or in person to assess the borrower’s financial situation and explore options for avoiding foreclosure. During the conversation, the lender must inform the borrower of the right to meet with the lender within 14 days. The lender must also give the borrower the toll-free number for finding a HUD-certified housing counseling agency.
Day 31: Filing of Notice of Default
For owner-occupied loans from 2003 to 2007, the lender may file a notice of default 30 days after contacting the borrower to explore options for avoiding foreclosure. The notice of default must be filed in the county where the property is located and a copy must be mailed within 10 business days after recordation to the borrower and all other persons who have requested such notice. The notice of default informs the borrower of the default. It must also include the lender's declaration that it has contacted the borrower to explore options for avoiding foreclosure, tried with due diligence to contact the borrower, or the borrower has surrendered the property.
Day 121: Filing of Notice of Trustee’s Sale
Three months after the filing of the notice of default, the lender may record a notice of trustee’s sale setting forth the date, time, and place of the upcoming trustee’s sale. Because of the gravity of a notice of trustee’s sale, it must be widely disseminated. The notice of trustee’s sale must be recorded, posted, mailed to the borrower and others, as well as published once a week for three consecutive weeks in a newspaper of general circulation.
Day 145: Deadline to Cure Default
Up to five business days before the trustee’s sale, the borrower may reinstate the loan by curing the default or paying the missed payments plus allowable costs. After the reinstatement period expires, the borrower still has the right to redeem the property by paying the entire debt, plus interest and costs (not just the arrearage), before the bidding begins at the trustee’s sale.
Day 152: Trustee’s Sale
Although California law allows a trustee’s sale to take place 20 days after the posting of the notice of trustee’s sale, lenders customarily wait at least 31 days instead to help protect against federal tax liens. At the trustee’s sale, the property is sold through a public auction to the highest bidder. Title is transferred to the successful bidder by trustee’s deed.
USING THIS FORECLOSURE TIMELINE
A foreclosure timeline helps you as a listing agent ascertain whether you have enough time to market and sell the property as a short sale. Depending on the stage of foreclosure the homeowner is in (“Foreclosure Stage”), the chart below gives you the total time frame you have, at a minimum, to sell a property as a short sale before the trustee’s sale occurs (“Minimum Time Left to Sell”).
Foreclosure Stage
Minimum Time Left to Sell
Homeowner just missed making mortgage payment for the first time.
About 6 to 8 months total
Homeowner has just been contacted by the lender to explore options for avoiding foreclosure.
About 5 months total
Notice of default has just been filed.
About 4 months total
Notice of trustee’s sale has just been filed.
Date of trustee’s sale is on notice of sale
As an example, if a notice of default has just been filed, you have a minimum of about four months to sell the property before the trustee’s sale may occur. That’s four months not only to find a buyer, but also to get the lender to approve the short sale and close escrow. The short sale lender may agree to postpone the trustee’s sale in some situations (such as when there’s an accepted offer), but be sure to get any agreement for a postponement in writing.
FORECLOSURE TIMELINE FOR OTHER TYPES OF LOANS For loans that are not secured by owner-occupied real property or not made from 2003 to 2007, lenders are not required to contact the borrowers to explore options for avoiding foreclosure. For these loans, the total minimum time for the foreclosure process is roughly only 122 days, not 152 days. If the lender is not required to contact the borrower, the foreclosure process takes a minimum of about 4 months from the filing of the notice of default to the day of the trustee’s sale.
The above timeline was reprinted with permission from the California Association of Realtors.
If you have questions about foreclosures or want to know if there is a way to prevent foreclosure from happening to you, please call me today! 877-601-7018 or email me: dave@dukesrealestateinc.com
FORECLOSURE TIMELINE FOR OWNER-OCCUPIED REAL PROPERTY LOANS (made from 2003 to 2007)
The approximate minimum time frames for the non-judicial foreclosure of owner‑occupied real property loans made from 2003 to 2007 are as set forth below. In California, most lenders elect to foreclose non-judicially by conducting trustees' sales, not by judicial foreclosure.
Pre-Foreclosure Period
A lender may initiate the foreclosure process when a borrower defaults on a loan, such as by missing a mortgage payment. However, a slight delay may not justify acceleration and foreclosure by the lender. Hence, in practice, lenders generally wait a few months after a missed payment before starting the foreclosure process.
Day 1: Lender Contacts Borrower
For owner-occupied loans from 2003 to 2007, a lender initiating the foreclosure process must generally contact the borrower by phone or in person to assess the borrower’s financial situation and explore options for avoiding foreclosure. During the conversation, the lender must inform the borrower of the right to meet with the lender within 14 days. The lender must also give the borrower the toll-free number for finding a HUD-certified housing counseling agency.
Day 31: Filing of Notice of Default
For owner-occupied loans from 2003 to 2007, the lender may file a notice of default 30 days after contacting the borrower to explore options for avoiding foreclosure. The notice of default must be filed in the county where the property is located and a copy must be mailed within 10 business days after recordation to the borrower and all other persons who have requested such notice. The notice of default informs the borrower of the default. It must also include the lender's declaration that it has contacted the borrower to explore options for avoiding foreclosure, tried with due diligence to contact the borrower, or the borrower has surrendered the property.
Day 121: Filing of Notice of Trustee’s Sale
Three months after the filing of the notice of default, the lender may record a notice of trustee’s sale setting forth the date, time, and place of the upcoming trustee’s sale. Because of the gravity of a notice of trustee’s sale, it must be widely disseminated. The notice of trustee’s sale must be recorded, posted, mailed to the borrower and others, as well as published once a week for three consecutive weeks in a newspaper of general circulation.
Day 145: Deadline to Cure Default
Up to five business days before the trustee’s sale, the borrower may reinstate the loan by curing the default or paying the missed payments plus allowable costs. After the reinstatement period expires, the borrower still has the right to redeem the property by paying the entire debt, plus interest and costs (not just the arrearage), before the bidding begins at the trustee’s sale.
Day 152: Trustee’s Sale
Although California law allows a trustee’s sale to take place 20 days after the posting of the notice of trustee’s sale, lenders customarily wait at least 31 days instead to help protect against federal tax liens. At the trustee’s sale, the property is sold through a public auction to the highest bidder. Title is transferred to the successful bidder by trustee’s deed.
USING THIS FORECLOSURE TIMELINE
A foreclosure timeline helps you as a listing agent ascertain whether you have enough time to market and sell the property as a short sale. Depending on the stage of foreclosure the homeowner is in (“Foreclosure Stage”), the chart below gives you the total time frame you have, at a minimum, to sell a property as a short sale before the trustee’s sale occurs (“Minimum Time Left to Sell”).
Foreclosure Stage
Minimum Time Left to Sell
Homeowner just missed making mortgage payment for the first time.
About 6 to 8 months total
Homeowner has just been contacted by the lender to explore options for avoiding foreclosure.
About 5 months total
Notice of default has just been filed.
About 4 months total
Notice of trustee’s sale has just been filed.
Date of trustee’s sale is on notice of sale
As an example, if a notice of default has just been filed, you have a minimum of about four months to sell the property before the trustee’s sale may occur. That’s four months not only to find a buyer, but also to get the lender to approve the short sale and close escrow. The short sale lender may agree to postpone the trustee’s sale in some situations (such as when there’s an accepted offer), but be sure to get any agreement for a postponement in writing.
FORECLOSURE TIMELINE FOR OTHER TYPES OF LOANS For loans that are not secured by owner-occupied real property or not made from 2003 to 2007, lenders are not required to contact the borrowers to explore options for avoiding foreclosure. For these loans, the total minimum time for the foreclosure process is roughly only 122 days, not 152 days. If the lender is not required to contact the borrower, the foreclosure process takes a minimum of about 4 months from the filing of the notice of default to the day of the trustee’s sale.
The above timeline was reprinted with permission from the California Association of Realtors.
If you have questions about foreclosures or want to know if there is a way to prevent foreclosure from happening to you, please call me today! 877-601-7018 or email me: dave@dukesrealestateinc.com
Monday, November 24, 2008
Nov 24 Real Estate Market Update
It shouldn’t come as a surprise for anyone that the October home sales were lower…given the constant barrage of negative news…
The National Association of Realtors said Monday that sales of existing homes fell 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98 million units in October, from a downwardly revised pace of 5.14 million in September.
The median sales price plunged 11.3 percent from a year ago to $183,000. That was the largest year-over-year drop on records going back to 1968, and the lowest median sales price since March 2004.
NOW FOR SOME GOOD NEWS
Sales were up 40.5 percent in the West compared with October last year, without adjusting for seasonal factors. Buyers in places like Las Vegas and Orange County, Calif., snapped up distressed properties at bargain prices. First time buyers are especially benefiting from this current market.
OK, now the important part….nearly 50% of all sales are Short Sales and REOs.
Nationwide, the Realtors group estimates that sales of distressed properties made up 45 percent of all property sales in October.
There were 4.23 million unsold homes on the market in October, down nearly 1 percent from a month earlier.
At the current sales pace, it would take 10.2 months to sell all the properties.
Until the inventory of homes falls to more normal levels, analysts say, the housing slump is likely to persist. Inventories are being driven higher by a massive wave of mortgage foreclosures.
Dave
The National Association of Realtors said Monday that sales of existing homes fell 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98 million units in October, from a downwardly revised pace of 5.14 million in September.
The median sales price plunged 11.3 percent from a year ago to $183,000. That was the largest year-over-year drop on records going back to 1968, and the lowest median sales price since March 2004.
NOW FOR SOME GOOD NEWS
Sales were up 40.5 percent in the West compared with October last year, without adjusting for seasonal factors. Buyers in places like Las Vegas and Orange County, Calif., snapped up distressed properties at bargain prices. First time buyers are especially benefiting from this current market.
OK, now the important part….nearly 50% of all sales are Short Sales and REOs.
Nationwide, the Realtors group estimates that sales of distressed properties made up 45 percent of all property sales in October.
There were 4.23 million unsold homes on the market in October, down nearly 1 percent from a month earlier.
At the current sales pace, it would take 10.2 months to sell all the properties.
Until the inventory of homes falls to more normal levels, analysts say, the housing slump is likely to persist. Inventories are being driven higher by a massive wave of mortgage foreclosures.
Dave
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